Geopolitical Realities of Post Mid-2020. Pakistani Budget – Taliban Agreement - Chinese Economy - Modi’s Future & U.S. Elections
TALIBAN OBJECTIVES -
Drive out the United States presence from Afghanistan, and subsequently takeover the entire Afghanistan. Expand the borders to emerge as a regional power. This is the fundamental philosophy behind Taliban objectives.
IRANIAN OBJECTIVES –
Gain control over the Middle East by removing pro-Arab and pro-U.S. regimes in the region.
CHINESE OBJECTIVES –
Undermine the dollar influence, and gain control over global economy. Defeat western culture and philosophy including economics.
INDIAN OBJECTIVES –
Akhand Bharat based on RSS radical philosophy under Modi regime.
THE ROLE OF CORONAVIRUS -
The abrupt eruption of Coronavirus has influenced the future planning of most nations. The economic impact will be witnessed over the years. At this point we do not know as to how many fatalities could be expected, or whether that could be contained in the near future. As of now, Chinese production units are facing the plunge, besides blow to the tourism industry. China supplies most consumable items and raw material globally. The supply and demand will lose the equilibrium. Shortages of Chinese products can be seen in the supermarkets today.
On the Afghan war front, the United States lost interest and has given up on Pakistan as well, a long-term ally. Would U.S. troops’ withdrawal provide a field’s day to the Taliban to twist Iranian muscles in a power battle to takeover pro-Arab Middle East? New alignments and realignments in the new geopolitical struggle are a likely fallback.
Pakistan’s dwindling economy provides room to Iran and its adversaries, the Arab regimes to garner support in Pakistan, both over the higher echelon and grassroots. Iran’s grass-root inroads and effective media campaign surpasses the role of her adversaries in a hybrid warfare in Pakistan.
On the Chinese theater, Coronavirus will leave footprints for the next decade to come. Chinese economic planning to defeat U.S. global hegemony has sunk, and the nations riding on the Chinese bandwagon have lost their dreams.
PAKISTAN’S FUTURE PROSPECTS:
I am afraid, the crippling economy will severely affect the balance of payments in the new budget in June 2020. This will lead to compromises at international stage and uprising on the domestic front. The current dynamics of engaging the domestic front to non-issue debates, such as “Aurat March”, or “Utha Baithi on Kashmir” will not last long in silencing the undercurrents.
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